Nigeria’s ‘inaccurate’ Population Figures, and the need for a Population Census

 Nigeria’s ‘inaccurate’ Population Figures, and the need for a Population Census

Over the years, Nigeria has been tagged as the most populous African country and black nation on earth. This tag is owing to Nigeria’s diverse cultures, ethnic groups, and the number of its citizens domiciled in different countries of the world. Her population also attributes to the reason why it is called the “Giant of Africa.” However, despite its growing population, there exist a disparity in the official number of Nigeria’s population. 

There exist different figures for Nigeria;’ population. Available figures from different organizations and sources, only project based on some metrics and speculations on the country’s last population census. Statista (a statistics company) put the country’s population at an estimated 216.7 million people. The World Bank puts the Nigeria’s population at 202 million people; the United Nations at 216.7 million people. These figures come out top amongst the numerous number on the internet and social media space. 

Population Census explained

The term census originates from the Latin World “Censere” which means ‘to assess or to rate’. National population census is the headcount or the counting of all individuals or humans in a country. A census is the government’s fundamental duty as it helps in helping the government design plan and programmes towards the social and economic prosperity of the country and its citizens.

History of Population Census in Nigeria

The history of population census in Nigeria dates back to the 18th century, long before the Southern and Northern Protectorate were amalgamated. The first population census in Nigeria was conducted in 1866 by the British. Census were also conducted in 1871, 1896, 1901, 1911, 1921, however these censuses were not regarded as official as it was deemed to be conducted only in the Lagos or the Southern Protectorates.

In 1921, the ‘first’ national population census which was inclusive of the northern protectorate was conducted and the figures the population was estimated to be 18.37 million. A decade after, another population census was conducted and the estimated figure was 19.93 million people. The year 1952/1953 was the last population census that was held in Nigeria under the British rule and the figure was 30.4 million people.

The first post-independence census was held in 1962, the figures from the census was estimated to be 45.1 million people. However, the figure from the census was rejected owing to the report that the southern regions had more population than the Northern regions. A new census board was constituted and the new figure was estimated around 55.7 million people. Another census was conducted in 1973 and the figure of the total population was 79.8 million people.

Another population census was held under the military government in 1991, and the figure was 88.5 million people in the country. The first population census in the first republic and last till date was held in 2006, which puts Nigeria’s population at 140 million people. Ever since, no population census has been held in the country, all figures ever since have been built upon the 2006 census.

Nigeria Population Commission

The Nation Population Commission was established in 1988 and it’s armed with the statutory power to gather, examine and transmit information about the demographics of the nation. Its duties also include collecting, compiling and publishing data on immigration and civil registration, as well as overseeing or keeping track of the nation’s population policy.

However, over the years, the National Population Commission just like most government organization have been moribund and haven’t performed its statutory duty. The commission since 2006 haven’t conducted a single census but have instead been rocked with scandals and controversies.

One of the inefficiencies of the commission was uncovered by a journalist, Adejumo Kabir, in October 2021, when he went undercover to obtain four different birth certificates under a fictitious name. the investigation spanned across Ogun, Oyo and Osun states showed how he was able to obtain a birth certificate obtained under the National Population Commission. This activity uncovered by Adejumo showed how figures are being accumulated to give Nigeria an estimated figure of the current population.

16 years after, the need for a population census

Despite the differences in the official figure of Nigeria’s population, Nigeria is currently the seventh most populated country in the world and the first in Africa. Based on projections from the United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA), the country’s population is expected to hit 400 million by 2050, this will make the population surpass the United States of America, and also become the third most populous country in the world.

First of the list is its importance to having a formidable and feasible National Development Plan. Over the years, the country has had successive governments create a development plan to better the life of citizens. Asides the cumbersome nation of such plans, the absence of an ‘accurate’ figure has made it difficult. Before and after the Covid-19 pandemic, the government has claimed to have embarked on series of interventions to lift citizens out of poverty. However, figures from the United Nations and World Bank has showed that more Nigerians are becoming poorer every day.

Furthermore, economic indicators are also based on population. Nigeria currently rely on abstract data to carry out its plans. The incumbent government has over the years emphasized on creating job opportunities and also boost and increased the country’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP). Having accurate figure will help the government track its plans and evaluate its performances and also create subsequent ones that will be tailored based on actual figures.

Nigerians has over the years suffered from a dearth of infrastructure. The available public infrastructure especially health has shown that, it cannot cater for the number of citizens. This has also worsened owing to the mass emigration of citizens to other parts of the world, thereby causing a brain drain. A population census will help the government in creating an infrastructure plan for the rural and urban areas of the country.

Also, electioneering processes are crucial to the development of any nation, especially one like Nigeria that practices democracy. Nigeria is currently adjudged to having the highest number of youths in the world. Having a population census will help the country in taking a look at its system of government and voting pattern to create an all-inclusive government where no one is left behind.

Not just a census, the need to digitize it

The advent of technology has created a world where things are done quicker and faster than in the 90s. The prevalence of technology has spread into virtually every facet of life and daily activities. One of the issues with population census in Nigeria is accuracy. The accuracy of population census done in the country has always been controversial owing to the manual way of doing it. The country should leverage on the power of the internet, and some of the means of identification it has created like the Bank Verification Number (BVN) and National Identity Number (NIN) to create a hitch-free census.

As the world and countries move deeper toward the latter stages of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), it’s important that Nigeria conducted a population census. This will not only help the country in achieving the above listed, it will also help the country in achieving the 17 SDGs, thereby improving the standard of living and lives of the citizens.